A mere 60 days ago when the Villa attacker was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager berated him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was whether his performances were a symptom or the reason of Villa's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, however, the manager's outburst was far more favourable. When the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss tore off his winter coat, opened his arms and roared. Villa were on their way to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their opening six fixtures, now sit just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Title Contenders?
This is a particularly tough question to resolve. Past precedent, the traditional standing of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, they have not been entirely convincing this season, despite the fact the wins have stacked up.
As per Opta, twice all season has the team had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club who have put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa seem curiously susceptible – however at the moment the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping Rogers to bail them out with two clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened versus the Red Devils.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival the club will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing the football past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is another reality in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet find their top level.
- The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the player he resembled in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, nobody thought the midfielder now would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial England player.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. When the hero faced the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and must be appreciated.
